Forex Technical Analysis: The Art of Predicting the Future by Studying the Past

Technical Analysis is the easiest and most precise way of trading the FOREX market known by the forex traders community. All available information on any particular currency, and its impact on traders, and the market, are already reflected in a currency's price. The foreign exchange market is mostly composed of trends and is, therefore, a place where technical analysis can be used very effectively. Experience in trading has shown that history repeats itself - over time, certain chart patterns become consistent, predictable and very reliable. The problem is being able of spoting them. There's always more than meets the eye at first glance.

Prices move in trends; and the traders who don't know this fact obviously have no need to implement a trading methodology on technical analysis, they haven’t even realized yet. But, over 100 years of research has shown that those who trade "with the trend", more often than not, greatly improve their chances of winning in the forex markets (i.e., making a profitable trade).


Many times finding the prevailing trend will help you become aware of the overall market direction and offer you better visibility--especially when shorter-term movements tend to clutter the picture. And many times following the trend will bail you out of an initially less than great entry point.


The main question you may be asking yourself by now is; how does technical analysis help you to determine what the trend of the market is and how does it help your efforts to trade with the trend and not against the trend?


It is important to mention that no one is claiming technical analysis as the “magic bullet” of trading . And if you ask, which indicators are better in Forex trading? The answer is none - technical indicators should simply be components of your overall customized / personalized trading system and not systems in and of themselves. They are like tools in a tool kit, not the kit itself!)/

As a Forex Technical Trader, your goals are:


#1) To figure out the price action of the currency pair. Price is the main concern. If the EUR/USD is at 1.3226 and goes to 1.3219, 1.3112, 1.3008 - the market is in a down trend. Despite what every technical indicator might predict, if the trend is down, stay with the trend. Indicators showing where price will go next or what it should be doing are useless. A trader need only be concerned with what the market is doing, not what the market might do. The price tells you what the market is doing.


#2) To always remember that technical indicators are only giving you confirmations based on what the market is telling you. So listen and pay close attention to the market and let it dictate which method you will use and which tool you will pull out of your bag of strategies and techniques. For only by listening to the markets will you ever be able to conquer it successfully and become a profitable trader.

FOREX Fundamental Analysis

Most FOREX traders rely on analysis to make plan their trading strategy. This article will discuss fundamental analysis. The other common form of analysis is technical analysis. After reading this article you should have a better understanding of fundamental analysis and how to use it as part of your FOREX strategy.

Political and economic changes are the basis of fundamental analysis. These can frequently affect currency prices. Traders that take advantage of fundamental analysis will gather their information from a variety of news sources. They are looking for information about unemployment forecasts, political ideologies, economic policies, inflation and growth rates.

Fundamental analysis will provide you with an overview of currency movements and a broad picture of the economic conditions. Most traders then will combine their fundamental analysis with technical analysis to plot actual entrance and exit points as well as confirming the information provided by their fundamental analysis.

Just like most markets the FOREX market is controlled by supply and demand. Many economic factors can affect the supply and demand but the two most critical ones are interest rates and the strength of the economy. The over all strength of the economy is affected by changes in the GDP, trade balances and the amount of foreign investment.

There are many economic indicators released by government and academic sources. These indicators are usually released on a monthly basis but will sometimes be released weekly. These are pretty reliable measures of economic health and are closely followed by all traders.

There are many indicators that are released but some of the most important and commonly followed are : interest rates, international trade, CPI, durable goods orders, PPI, PMI and retail orders.

Interest Rates - can cause a currency to either strengthen or weaken depending on the direction of movement. In some cases high interest rates will attract foreign money, however high interest rates will frequently cause stock market investors to sell of their portfolios. They do this believing that the higher cost of borrowing money will adversely affect many companies. If enough investors sell of their holdings in can cause a downturn in the market and negatively affect the economy.

Which of these two affects will take place depends on many complex factors, but there is usually an agreement among economic observers as to how the current change in interest rates will affect the general economy and the price of the currency.

International Trade - If there is a trade deficit (more items imported than exported) it is usually considered a negative indicator. When there is a trade deficit it means that more money is leaving the country to buy foreign goods than is entering the country and this can have a devaluing effect on the currency. Usually though trade imbalances are already factored into the market consideration. If a country normally operates with a trade deficit then there should not be an affect on the currency price. The currency price will normally only be effected by trade differences when the deficit is greater than the market expected.

The measurement of the cost of living (CPI) and the cost of producing goods (PPI) are a couple of other important indicators. You should also watch the GDP which measures the value of all the goods produced in a country and the M2 Money Supply which measures the total amount of currency for a country.

In the US alone there are 28 major indicators, these can have a strong effect on the financial market and should be closely watched. This information can be found many places on the internet and is provided by many brokers.

Comments on Forex Trading Account Sizes, Lots and Margin Calls.

Forex trading is one of the best business opportunities you can think of joining these days. No other market in the world allows the “Leverage” that the profitable world of currency-trading does. Leverage is all about margin trading. In the Forex market, it is essentially the ratio of the amount used in a trade to the required security deposit needed, by the particular broker you chose to use, for that trade.

Normally, for most brokerages, a margin deposit of just $1,000 allows you to control a $100,000 position in the Forex market. That's 100:1 leverage, or 1%. Or, said in a different way, a “regular full-sized account”, sometimes referred to as a 100k account, allows you to trade with lot sizes equal to $100,000. Each lot is worth $100,000 in currency. So It would only require $1,000 to trade one lot.

This great feature in Forex trading is what makes this market the hottest market to trade in right now. The Forex broker has given you a loan of $99,000 dollars secured only by your $1,000! This is a huge loan and, as you may know by now, this is what allows traders to make extraordinary incomes in this market. And, as you also are probably used to hearing , "leverage is a two-edged sword" , it is what can cause you to lose a lot of money if you trade without rules or Stop-loss orders.

But just as an example, let's say you were a person that likes to trade with reckless abandon, i.e., with no strategy, no common sense, no money- management principles, etc. That’s never recommended for anyone, but being a Forex trader has such great advantages, that even someone with a trading mind like the one described before, will never lose more than what he has placed into a trade.

Unlike Futures (Commodity Trading), the market that most people associate with High leverage, you can never have a debit balance when trading Forex.

So, despite the greater leverage associated with FX trading, it is still arguably less risky than futures trading. Futures markets are often prone to sudden and dramatic moves, against which you can’t protect yourself, even by trading with protective stops. Your position may be liquidated at a loss, and you’ll be liable for any resulting deficit in the account. But because of the Forex markets great liquidity and 24-hour, continuous trading, dangerous trading gaps and limit moves are very unprobable. Orders are executed quickly, without slippage or partial fills, which is just great.

And as it was not enough, there are no margin calls, for your protection, the forex broker's trading platform will automatically close out some or all of your open positions if your account equity, meaning the total floating value of the account, falls below the level required to hold the positions. Think of this as a final, automatic stop, always working on your behalf to prevent a debit balance.